The Effects of Subjective Arousal, Valence, and Individual Differences on Affective Forecasting Accuracy
Affective forecasting literature has suggested that people anticipate positive events being more positive and negative events as more negative than actually experienced (Wilson and Gilbert, 2003) and these forecasting errors can lead to poor decision making (Gilbert & Ebert, 2002). The motivation theory of emotion (Lang, Bradley, and Cuthbert, 1992) asserts that affect is governed by appetitive and defensive activation which are described by two co-varying processes: arousal and valence. However, no study has examined how appetitive and defensive activation could be applied to understanding the accuracy of affective forecasting. In the present study we measured how rating arousal in addition to valence affected affective forecasting accuracy. We also examined the relationship between individual differences (dysphoria, neuroticism, and extraversion) and affective forecasting. Lastly, we investigated whether the error in affective forecasting lies in the forecast or the experience. Participants (N = 148), either forecasted their valence only (V-O group) or their arousal and valence (A-V group) for positive, neutral, and negative events. All participants then viewed a series of pictures pertaining to each emotional event. After viewing each set of pictures, participants immediately indicated their experienced valence (V-O) or their arousal and valence (A-V). Participants also indicated their valence (V-O) or arousal and valence (A-V) at the beginning and end of the study.An interaction was found between the V-O and A-V group and relative accuracy for positive and negative pictures. People who rated arousal underestimated how unpleasant the negative pictures would be compared to the V-O group. For positive pictures, the V-O group overestimated pleasantness compared to the A-V group. In other words, the A-V group estimated the valence as less extreme for both positive and negative material. Individual differences revealed that higher scores on dysphoria were inversely related to forecasted and experienced pleasantness of positive pictures. High scores on extraversion were positively correlated with forecasted pleasantness of positive pictures. Absolute error for positive pictures was found to be related to the experience and not the forecast. This implies that people forecasted positive pictures relatively the same, but showed differences at experience. The opposite was true for negative pictures. Here, people forecasted negative picture valence differently but were relatively uniform in their experience of negative pictures. This study was the first to attempt to understand how different motivational states, defensive and appetitive, can be applied to affective forecasting phenomena. Considering arousal when affective forecasting appears to improve accuracy for appetitive events, yet worsens accuracy for defensive events. These results suggest that arousal, valence, and individual differences are important contributors to affective forecasting accuracy.
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